Key Takeaways
- Nottingham Forest crushed Sunderland 5-0 to reach 39 points, eight ahead of 18th-placed Tottenham.
- History shows no team with 39 points after 34 games has ever gone down.
- Data models now give Spurs a 61% chance of relegation and West Ham 38%.
Nottingham Forest took a giant step towards Premier League safety on Friday night after hammering Sunderland 5-0 at the Stadium of Light.
The victory lifts Vitor Pereira’s men to 39 points with four matches left, opening an eight-point gap over Tottenham in the drop zone and six over West Ham just above them.
Stats offer huge comfort to Forest fans: in the 38-game era, the side ending 18th has averaged only 34.5 points, and every club on 39 points at this stage has survived.
Despite the numbers, Pereira refused to celebrate. “Thirty-nine isn’t enough,” he said. “We must keep winning and keep our focus.”
His warning sounded cautious yet sensible. Mathematically, Tottenham could still reach 46 points if they win every remaining fixture, while West Ham can hit 44.
Both London clubs face stiff run-ins. Spurs still meet Wolves, Aston Villa, Leeds, Chelsea and Everton, while West Ham take on Everton, Brentford, Arsenal, Newcastle and Leeds.
Forest, meanwhile, travel to Chelsea and Bournemouth and host Newcastle and Manchester United.
Chris Wood, back after a long knee lay-off, opened the floodgates against Sunderland, with Igor Jesus, Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White also on target in a blistering six-minute first-half spell.
Former midfielder Jamie Redknapp called it “the result of the season”, adding that Tottenham and West Ham bosses would have watched nervously.
Wood admitted survival is “in touching distance” but echoed his manager’s caution. “We’re close, yet we still need one more push,” he said.
Form favours West Ham slightly; they have taken seven points from the last five matches, while Spurs are winless in 2025.
Advanced models now rate Forest and Leeds (40 points) as more than 99% safe, leaving Tottenham and West Ham in a straight shoot-out for the last relegation berth.
The coming weekend could tilt the balance: West Ham welcome Everton on Saturday evening and Spurs visit already-relegated Wolves at the same kick-off time, with every Kenyan fan eager to see which side blinks first.
