Key Takeaways
- Nottingham Forest hammered Sunderland 5-0 but gained no ground in the relegation fight as their rivals also won
- At least seven teams still face the threat of relegation with only four games left this season
- Newly promoted clubs have performed much better than in previous years, making the league more competitive
Nottingham Forest had a good weekend, though not as perfect as they hoped. On Friday night, they thrashed Sunderland 5-0 at the Stadium of Light. Forest expected this result to put distance between them and their relegation rivals. However, they ended the weekend in the same position as they started. They remain five points clear of Tottenham Hotspur in third-bottom place and three points ahead of West Ham United. Both London clubs won their matches. There are only four games left to play.
Saturday provided classic relegation drama. This is rare in modern football because matches are usually spread across the weekend. However, Tottenham’s game at Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham’s fixture against Everton started at the same time. When Tomáš Souček scored for West Ham six minutes after half-time, fans celebrated at the London Stadium. At the same time, Tottenham supporters at Molineux felt nervous. Later, João Palhinha put Tottenham ahead with eight minutes remaining. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall then equalised for Everton with two minutes left. If the scores had stayed the same, Tottenham would have climbed out of the relegation zone on goal difference. But Callum Wilson scored for West Ham during stoppage time. This lifted West Ham back above Spurs and within three points of Forest.
In this way, nothing changed at the bottom of the table. Leeds United have not lost in six league games. They might have thought this run would guarantee their safety. Yet they sit only one point above Forest. Newcastle United lost their fourth straight league game at Arsenal. They are just two points ahead of Leeds. Even Crystal Palace and Sunderland, who are one point and four points further clear, are not mathematically safe. Realistically, Tottenham are unlikely to win three of their last four games. They had gone 116 days without a league victory before Saturday. However, it seems very possible that 40 points will not be enough to stay up this season. Traditionally, 40 points guarantees safety.
Only three Premier League teams have ever been relegated with 40 points or more. Sunderland got 40 points in 1996-97. Bolton Wanderers got 40 points in 1997-98. West Ham got 42 points in 2002-03. This is very different from the past two seasons. Then, the team in third-bottom place got 26 points, then 25 points. Not since Newcastle United went down with 37 points in 2015-16 has a team with more than 34 points been relegated. So what has changed?
This season might simply be an exception. Tottenham could lose their four remaining games and finish with 34 points. They have shown more fight under manager Roberto De Zerbi. However, confidence remains low. Their injury problems got worse when Xavi Simons suffered a serious knee injury against Wolves.
The biggest change has been the performance of the promoted teams. Last season, the three new teams got 59 points between them. The season before, they got 66 points. This season, they have already collected 106 points. Burnley have struggled. However, Leeds and Sunderland spent money wisely on good players. Next season, Coventry City will come up. Two other teams will join them from Ipswich Town, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Wrexham, Hull City and Derby County. These new teams may not spend as much money. However, Ipswich and Southampton have recent Premier League experience. Wrexham have strong financial backing from Hollywood owners.
More generally, this has been the best season for the Premier League’s middle-class clubs since 2015-16. That year, Leicester City won the league. Southampton finished sixth and West Ham came seventh. The following summer, the big clubs spent huge amounts of money. This brief period of equality ended. The Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSRs) have a bad reputation. Some ambitious clubs with wealthy owners feel these rules stop them from investing. However, this season shows the system might work. It proves that careful spending and steady improvement can help smaller clubs compete. Richer clubs cannot simply pull away. However, PSRs will be replaced next season by Squad Cost Ratio. This new system seems to allow rich clubs to use their money more freely.
For now, the Premier League has not only a proper title race but also a real battle against relegation. This is how football should be. Every matchday brings dramatic twists. The four teams most likely to go down have all found good form late in the season. This has made one or two other teams begin to feel nervous.