News Focus
- Inter Milan have already secured their 21st league title with weeks to spare.
- Pisa and Hellas Verona are mathematically certain to finish in the bottom two.
- ACF Fiorentina, US Cremonese, US Lecce and Genoa CFC are fighting to avoid the final relegation spot.
- Poor defensive records plague the bottom six, with Pisa conceding 63 goals this campaign.
- The final three match weeks will decide which club joins the bottom two in the second tier.
While Inter Milan celebrate their Scudetto success, the real tension is at the foot of the table. Four sides are locked in a desperate struggle to secure their top-flight status for next season.
Pisa and Hellas Verona are already doomed. They will certainly play in Serie B next term. Between them, these two clubs have won fewer than five matches by mid-April. Such a poor points tally makes survival impossible.
The statistics reveal why these teams are struggling. Pisa have leaked 63 goals. This is the worst defensive record in the division. Verona have conceded 57 times. In attack, both teams have struggled to find the back of the net. Verona have scored just 24 goals, while Pisa have managed only 25 in 35 outings.
The other four candidates for the drop have shown more promise in front of goal. Genoa have hit 40 goals, while Fiorentina have netted 38 times. Cremonese have scored 27 and Lecce have managed 24. However, their defensive frailties remain a serious concern. Cremonese have let in 53 goals. Fiorentina have conceded 49, Genoa 48, and Lecce 47.
Data from Opta Analyst shows that Pisa, Verona and Genoa are conceding far more goals than expected. This metric is crucial when predicting the final outcome. Despite this, Genoa possess the quality and experience to climb out of trouble. They are a much stronger side than the bottom two.
The fixture list will play a huge role in the coming weeks. Eusebio Di Francesco’s men have recently faced Fiorentina, Verona and Pisa in successive weeks. They end their campaign with a clash against Genoa. They hope to secure safety before that final match kicks off.
Cremonese face a tougher run under manager Giampaolo. After playing Pisa in week 36, they must take on Napoli and Como. These are two of the strongest teams in the league. Cremonese will likely struggle to pick up points in those games. Therefore, they must win their other fixtures to stand a chance.
Fiorentina look the safest of the four. Their squad has more talent and financial backing than the others. However, they still face Genoa and other difficult opponents. They cannot afford to relax if they want to guarantee safety.
Genoa face Fiorentina in a crucial week 36 encounter. They are the underdogs for that match. They finish their season against Lecce in week 38. That final-day fixture could decide everything for one or both clubs. Alternatively, it might mean nothing if Cremonese are already down by then.
Cagliari could yet join this relegation dogfight. They are in poor form after losing to Inter Milan. If they continue to drop points, they might become the sixth team involved in the survival battle.