News Focus
- United States are 50/1 outsiders but represent the biggest liability for major bookmakers
- France and Spain share favouritism at +450 to lift the trophy
- Argentina and Portugal attract heavy betting due to Messi and Ronaldo factors
- Haiti emerge as bizarre 2500/1 long shot with surprising punter support
The United States men’s national team faces an uphill battle to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup on home soil. Bookmakers have priced the hosts at 50/1, placing them well behind the tournament favourites. However, patriotic support from American punters has created a significant financial risk for betting firms.
Mark Bickerdike, who leads football trading at Caesars Sports, confirmed the trend. “In terms of the response that we have seen so far, the USA is our biggest liability,” he stated. The tournament begins on Thursday, June 11, and this liability is expected to increase as the kick-off approaches.
The long odds mean that even modest stakes accumulate quickly into large potential payouts. While France and Spain attract greater volumes of bets and money, the shorter prices on these European giants mean less overall risk for bookmakers. Both nations sit at +450 as joint favourites to claim the title.
Bickerdike explained the appeal of the two frontrunners. Spain enter the tournament as reigning European champions and display excellent form. France boast remarkable squad depth and possess Kylian Mbappé, who finished as top scorer in the 2022 final in Qatar. The Paris Saint-Germain striker heads the betting for the Golden Boot at +600.
England occupy third position in the betting markets at +725, though they trail France and Spain in terms of money staked. The Three Lions have not won the competition since hosting it in 1966. Manager Thomas Tuchel hopes to end this drought, but the trading expert suggests they could exit early or enjoy a deep run depending on tactical decisions.
Defending champions Argentina share the fourth line of betting with Portugal at +900. Both nations benefit from interest in their iconic captains. “There is a lot of money on Argentina and Portugal, just because of the Messi and Ronaldo aspect,” Bickerdike noted. He personally favours Argentina due to their balance between experienced stars and emerging talent.
Beyond the leading contenders, Bickerdike identified several potential group winners. Mexico benefit from playing at altitude in Mexico City and host the opening match against South Africa on Thursday afternoon. The trader also tipped Egypt, led by Mohamed Salah, or Iran to upset Belgium in Group G.
Perhaps the most surprising betting trend involves Haiti. The Caribbean nation shares the longest price in the 48-team field at +250000, yet they have become “bizarrely popular” with customers and represent another major liability for bookmakers.